Drexel Heights, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

691
FXUS65 KTWC 141917
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1216 PM MST Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...High temperatures through early next week will generally
be near to below normal. A storm system moving across the Great
Basin will result in breezy to windy southwest to west winds today.
Less wind on Thursday and Friday and then a return to breezy to
windy conditions over the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A strong area of low pressure was currently centered
over eastern Idaho, with a well defined trough axis extending
southward across Utah into northern Arizona. The upper low will move
northeast into the western Great Lakes by Friday with near zonal
flow across the desert southwest both Thursday and Friday. The flow
turns southwest and increases over the weekend as a trough and storm
system move southward across the western United States. The upper
low will then move across northern Arizona early next week before
pushing east of the region. Strong high pressure aloft builds across
the desert southwest mid to late next week.

The trough axis will shift eastward of the forecast area by early
this evening. Until then, critical fire weather conditions are
expected across the eastern half of the forecast area, with strong
and gusty southwest to west winds. A Red Flag Warning remains in
effect for most of Fire Weather Zone 152 and eastern portions of
Fire Weather Zones 151 and 154 until 7 pm MST this evening. These
gusty winds may also result in areas of blowing dust, especially
across the eastern half of Cochise County. Highs today will top out
6-9 degrees below normal.

Warmer temperatures Thursday and Friday in zonal flow, with highs
Thursday 3-5 degrees below normal and highs right around normal on
Friday. Less wind, but still remaining breezy in the afternoon and
early evening across eastern areas. Wind speeds across portions of
Cochise, Graham and Greenlee counties Thursday and Friday will top
out for a couple of hours in the mid/late afternoon hours at 15-20
mph with some gusts to near 30 mph.

By this weekend the flow turns southwest and strengthens as a trough
develops across the western United States. This will result in
strong and gusty southwest winds across southeast Arizona, with near
critical to critical fire weather conditions. At this time, Sunday
appears to be the windiest day. Highs will be right around normal on
Saturday, lowering a couple of degrees Sunday as heights lower with
the approaching system.

There are model differences with the track of the upper low on
Monday, with some of the models moving the upper low as far south as
northern Arizona, while others keep it across the Great Basin. A
more southern track would lead to a slight chance of precipitation
for our forecast area, while the northern track would be dry. Either
way, temperatures will cool significantly on Monday, with highs 9-12
degrees below normal.

Tuesday through Thursday of next week a strong warming trend takes
place with high temperatures around the 100 degree mark the latter
half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 16/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds AOA 15k AGL thru 15/02Z, then FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20k
ft AGL thru the remainder of the forecast period. SFC wind west of a
KCGZ, KTUS to KOLS line; WLY/NWLY at 10-15 kts with gusts to near 20
kts thru 15/02Z, then diminishing wind to less than 10 kts and
variable in direction between 15/03Z and 15/17Z. Aft 15/17Z WLY/NWLY
SFC wind at 8-13 kts. SFC wind east of the KCGZ, KTUS to KOLS line;
SWLY/WLY at 20-25 kts with gusts to 30-35 kts thru 15/03Z, then
diminishing wind to less than 12 kts between 15/05Z and 05/17Z. Aft
05/17Z WLY/NWLY SFC wind at 15-20 kts and gusts to 25-30 kts.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A storm system moving across the Great Basin will
result in strong and gusty southwest to west winds and critical fire
weather conditions across the eastern half of southeast Arizona into
the early evening hours tonight. A Red Flag Warning remains in
effect until 7 PM MST this evening for most of Fire Weather Zone 152
and eastern portions of Fire Weather Zones 151 and 154.

Otherwise, high temperatures will be 6-9 degrees below normal today,
rebounding to near normal Friday and Saturday. Typical afternoon
breezes Thursday and Friday for much of southeast Arizona, with
breezy conditions persisting across Cochise, Graham and Greenlee
counties where 20-foot wind speeds will be 15-20 mph and gusts to
near 30 mph during the mid/late afternoon hours. Increasing
southwest winds are expected over the upcoming weekend as another
storm system moves to our north. Near critical to critical fire
weather conditions are expected both Saturday and Sunday, with
Sunday looking to be the windiest of the two days.

Temperatures will be 2-4 degrees below normal Sunday, lowering to 9-
12 degrees below normal next Monday, warming to well above normal
levels by the middle of next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for AZZ151-152-154.

&&

$$

Zell

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